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6 Scenarios for Collapse

If you are not yet aware of Ran Prieur, shame on you. His site is worth monitoring regularly. He posted another essay on six possible collapse scenarios, which I can't recommend more enthusiastically.

Print out Fall Down Six Times and go savor it on the sofa like a good book.

It's 10 pages long.

Gross National Happiness Index

Further on my previous post about the national sense of pessimism over the future, I'd like to pitch the idea of the U.S. adopting Bhutan's Gross National Happiness Index to be used in tandem with GDP as an indicator of how things are going in general. Bhutan's index attempts to capture the over all sense of well-being amongst its population.  It could be argued that well-being is just as important, if not more so, than how much we consume.

A quick search revealed a Gross National Happiness Index conference has taken place twice so far. I could see this index taking off initially at the grass roots level with local newspapers conducting polls to aggregate data. Ultimately this would lead to adoption of a national GNH Index.

You can find more information on community building at Karavans.

Surviving Peak Oil HQ

I first heard about Peak Oil in 2002 and, like almost everyone, dismissed it as as yet another variation of the doomsday cults. Then in 2004, when Shell revised its reserves downwards by 20%, I began to take it seriously. Very seriously. Do I have definitive proof that Peak Oil is a bona fide short term threat? No, but there is a great deal of compelling evidence to support the position that the prudent should be preparing for it. My personal belief is that the rear view mirror of history will show that we hit the top of Hubbert's Peak in late 2005, as a few well-regarded experts have stated.

There are two typical reactions to first learning about Peak Oil: denial or a sense of hopelessness. Most people opt for the former after first dismissing the news with nothing more than, "Don't worry, someone will come up with something to make it go away." (Unfortunately, they confuse technology with energy which are not the same thing. Technology without energy is like a Ferrari with an empty gas tank.) A minority digs deeply into the available research material and then sinks into a sense hopelessness.

I have passed through both stages myself--albeit quickly.

There are two typical reactions to this news: denial or a sense of hopelessness. Most people opt for the former after first dismissing the news with nothing more than, "Don't worry, someone will come up with some new technology to make it go away." They ignore the fact that technology runs on energy. Technology without energy is as useless as a Ferrari with an empty gas tank. A minority of people digs deeply into the available research material and then sinks into a sense of hopelessness.

There is, however, a third way to respond. We can recognize the fact that we can use Peak Oil to finally take a proactive role in shaping our lives and communities as the world enters into power descent, rather than merely being passive victims. To avoid doing so is to forfeit a watershed opportunity to shape our and our children's future for the better.

This is what Karavans is all about: creating a positive vision for tomorrow and acting towards its implementation. In a time of rapid change and dramatic transformation, Karavans will serve as a hub for disseminating new ideas, information, tools, and techniques for those committed to acting proactively.

Specifically, Karavans will cover unlocking of the food supply, moving off-the-grid, renewable energy, self-sufficiency, community and local economy building, ecological design, permaculture, and other matters germane to sustainable life-styles as the world powers down.

Right now, we are building relationships with others interested in taking a proactive role in preparations. My background is in business and getting companies up and running. I have also had a strong interest in and passion for CED (Community Economic Development) dating back almost 20 years. My other strong point is in working with the media. If you'd like to explore the possibility of collaborating with us, let me know. Here's my email. Whether you're an aspiring entrepreneur with a new renewable energy product, a writer covering Peak Oil and environmental issues, or an artist exploring the creation of new memes for a world in energy descent, we have room for you.

If you just want to stay informed for the time being, sign up for the Karavans Newsletter and Alerts.

Where Has All the Optimism Gone?

If you're over 40, you may have noticed that for very the first time in your lifetime there's a definite lack of optimism about the future, both for our country and the world as a whole. People growing up in the 1950s and 60s were bombarded with stories about how bright everyone's future was going to be. Remember The Jetsons? That's what I'm talking about. Flying cars. Affordable space travel. The elimination of disease. Everyone believed that things would just continue to get better and better.

In 1956, Fortune magazine published "The Fabulous Future," a book of essays by luminaries forecasting a nation of technological and economic wonders by 1980. Adlai Stevenson spoke of "the most extraordinary growth any nation or civilization has ever experienced." George Meany predicted "ever-rising" living standards. And David Sarnoff gushed, "There is no element of material progress we know today that will not seem from the vantage point of 1980 a fumbling prelude."

That same year, that wild utopian, Richard Nixon, then vice president in the Eisenhower administration, heralded a 30-hour, four-day workweek "in the not too distant future." Gallup polls found that only 3% of the population questioned whether the nation was enjoying "good times," and just 8% doubted that the good times would keep getting better indefinitely.

So what the hell happened? I am especially interested in an explanation for the lack of a 30-hour, four-day work week. 

Something's gone wrong. Terribly wrong. Last year I read Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. It starts off strong with his description of the 10 or 12 driving forces behind globalism, then starts to sputter at mid-point and makes it to the finish line on little more than fumes.

There's one truly disconcerting point about his book. Throughout it, on almost every page, the implicit message is that we, as individuals and as a nation, will have to work harder and longer just to keep from falling behind. As I read through it the image of someone torturing a gerbil by spinning its wheel faster and faster kept appearing in my head.

Look, I'm self-employed and am fortunate enough to actually enjoy my work. I currently put about 12 hours a day into it 5 days a week, plus a few more on weekends. But at some point enough is enough. Do we really want a life where things are so hyper-competitive that we have no time for living?

Last fall, I read one of the dumbest comments ever seen on the Net, at least in my book. Several people were arguing on a message board over when life was better: now or back in the 1960s.  One participant replied with almost palpable exasperation, "Of course life is better now! Just look at all the electronics we have." Lord help us, if we ever sink to measuring our lives by how many gadgets we have to distract us from real life.

There's an interesting article in the LA Times titled "Utopia Lost" about our collective loss of optimism.

If you have lost your sense optimism about the future, you are not alone.

The Peak Oil Meme Has Started

Our eagle-eyed correspondent Steve Lagavulin connects the dots and concludes that the Civilization in Crisis meme has been let loose.

Finally.

Steve points out that the NY Times has admitted that Peak Oil is here. He also points out that diverse publications such as Intentional Communities and Permaculture Activist are about to run major articles on Peak Oil and its likely effects.  So Peak Oil awareness is starting to snowball.

You can read more on the potential collapse of civilization memes at this site.

Life After Peak Oil Hits

There's an excellent series of four articles on life after Peak oil in the Austin Chronicle by Michael Ventura. Here are the links.

Things to come: part I [2005-09-30]
With two storms, nature has increased the speed of America's decline by several years. This series of columns sketches what we're in for (for good as well as for ill). The focus of this column is air travel and the tourist industries.

Things to come: Part 2 [2005-10-14]
People of all political persuasions are beginning to face the reality that Americans' demand for oil is outpacing our supply and refining capacity, which in turn will cripple our economy's ability to grow. Our disposable society will become a scavenging society, and, on the brighter side, a more inventive society.

Things to come: part 3 [2005-10-28]
With oil in the future rationed to agriculture, essential services, and (inevitably) the military, and personal long-distance driving and passenger flight no longer feasible – then, if the United States is to remain a continental entity, the only answer is trains.

Things to come: part 4 and last [2005-11-11]
Right now, and for at least the next three years of this administration, the United States of America is not being governed. Hurricane Katrina demonstrated, and Iraq every day confirms, that the powers-that-be are dysfunctional. We are on our own.

Click here for a good introduction to Peak Oil.

Invasion of the Pod People

These are very interesting new pod shelters from a company in the Seattle area. They are cheap and can be quickly assembled. Prices start in the low $2000s. Not bad if you have raw land out the country somewhere.

More info on pod shelters here.

First Peak Oil Collapse Novel

Although I'm reading two to three books at any given point in time, they're all work related. I haven't had time for fiction in years. Until now that is. A week ago I placed an order for a new novel dealing with the survivors of a post Peak Oil collapse of civilization. I'm hoping that the mailman delivers it today.

The novel is titled After the Crash: An Essay-Novel of the Post-Hydrocarbon Era, by Caryl Johnston. You can read the first chapter at the above page. For only $8.18 plus s/h, it's quite the deal.

There's a site out there somewhere trying to find investors for a Peak Oil movie, although I can't recall any information that could be used to dig up the url.

Here's hoping that Hollowood catches on to Peak Oil as almost nothing raises public awareness of an issue like a good movie.

Navigating the Collapse of Civilization: a Spiritual Map

Never underestimate the power of compassionately recognizing what's going on. - Pema Chödrön

There's an excellent new essay titled Navigating the Collapse of Civilization: a Spiritual Map by Carolyn Baker, Ph.D.  It covers the positives that can result from a Peak Oil-induced collapse of civilization as we know it. There are actually quite a few of them. This is a highly recommended read.

Excerpt:

Moreover, collapse may bring meaning and purpose to our lives which might otherwise have eluded us. In our linear, progress-based existence, we rarely contemplate words like “purpose.” With civilization's collapse, we may be forced to evaluate daily, perhaps moment to moment, why we are here, if we want to remain here, if life is worth living, if there is something greater than ourselves for which we are willing to remain alive and to which we choose to contribute energy. These decisions probably will not be made in the cozy comfort of our homes, but in the streets, the fields, the deserts, the forests, and beside forgotten rivers and trails. Purpose will rapidly cease being about what we can accomplish and will increasingly become more about who we are. In a collapsing world, the so-called “purpose-driven life” will no longer exist. Humans will be “driven” by only one issue: the determination to survive and assist loved ones in surviving. From that quest for survival will emerge authentic purpose, which will undoubtedly not resemble anything we can imagine today.